- In December 2021, Calvin Ayre continued a tradition of making predictions about BSV for the following year
- Ayre’s predictions have been famously bad in the past
- A year on, we look and see how he has fared in 2022
For those that have followed a certain section of the crypto space for a while, Calvin Ayre’s holiday message is an event not to be missed. Not only does the BSV financial backer apply the broadest brush of whitewash to BSV’s missteps that year, he also throws out some grand predictions for the years to come.
History hasn’t been kind to him so far, with 2020 seeing one prediction in five coming true and last year seeing none of his three predictions come to pass. Has he fared any better in 2022? Let’s find out.
Prediction: The “first fruits” of the deal between BSV and the island nation of Tuvalu, which would see the digitization of its government records into a Tuvalu National Digital Ledger, would be seen.
Result: Nope. Coingeek hasn’t mentioned Tuvalu for around 18 months, with the last update in mid-2021 saying that a prototype was coming in 2022. This has not materialised, probably because the island has more pressing concerns with trying to avoid being swallowed up by rising sea levels.
Score: 0/1
Prediction: Hodlonaut and Peter McCormack would be “reminded” by UK courts that “no matter how much they don’t like Craig Wright, defamation is still a crime.”
Result: Ayre was referring to the motions lost by both McCormack and Hodlonaut in the lead up to their UK trials, but, of course, motions have nothing to do with the case itself. This means he has no right to say that the courts have reminded the pair that “defamation is still a crime”.
Seeing as the Hodlonaut case in the UK is still pending (he famously lost the Norway case, pending appeal), we can’t say whether he is right on that one or not yet, although Wright did beat Peter McCormack. However, Wright’s false case has led to the judge recommending that Wright pay at least 75% of McCormack’s costs plus his own, so Ayre is wrong to say that the defeat was costly to the podcaster.
We’ll give him a half for the McCormack ‘victory’.
Score: 0.5/2
Prediction: Ayre and his acolytes expected to be “celebrating COPA’s comeuppance by this point” in 2022, presumably in the form of a legal defeat.
Result: Ambitious… and wrong. Ayre was seemingly spurred on by Craig Wright claiming back in November last year that the COPA case against him would be “over in a few weeks”, although it’s unclear what the basis for their joint confidence was. Instead, we found out in July that the COPA vs Craig Wright case will take place between January and March 2024, making this a spectacular failure on both their parts.
Normally we would take away the half for being so badly wrong, but this is Christmas, so we’ll let him keep it.
Score: 0.5/3
Prediction: Wright’s ‘victory’ against Ira Kleiman in December 2021, where he was ordered to pay $100 million on the charge of conversion, would “help educate enterprises on the wide range of benefits BSV has to offer”.
Result: Hard to judge quantitatively, but it doesn’t seem that any enterprises (at least not those of any repute) have educated themselves on BSV to the point where they have actually started to use it. Calvin Ayre has tried to defend this, saying that the Kleiman case “has had an amazing change” with Wright now talking at lots of IEEE and IPv6 conferences (which he has only managed due to his close relationship with Latif Ladid, the founder and president of the IPv6 Forum), as well as bolstering Wright’s abilities to “defend the troll atttacks [sic].”
Not a word on enterprise adoption though, so that has to go down as a miss.
Score: 0.5/4
Whoops, He Did It Again
So there we have it, a pretty pathetic 0.5 out of 4 – and that’s only because of a technicality. That’s a total of one and a half correct predictions out of 12 in the past three years, although we can’t expect too much from the man bankrolling Craig Wright’s disastrous lawsuits.
Better luck next year, Calvin.
