- In December 2020, Calvin Ayre continued a tradition of making predictions about BSV for the following year
- Ayres predictions have been famously bad in the past
- A year on, we look and see how he has fared in 2021
Calvin Ayre is a fan of predictions, constantly telling Twitter how BSV will win everything from Crufts to Miss World if given enough time. Last year he made five predictions, only one of which came true, and it seems he learnt from his mistakes – in December last year his predictions were fewer but no less huge. Let’s take a look at what he predicted and how it has played out.
Prediction: “The reality is is that this massive scaling and its data management capabilities is going to make it (BSV) the only contender to be the world’s first true world computer.””
Result: Now, Ayre didn’t specifically say this would happen in 2021, which is probably a good thing seeing as the results are less than spectacular. Of course, we can’t check his prediction in a quantitative manner and he didn’t give us any metrics to judge his prediction by, so we have to go about things a bit differently.
A Google search of ‘world computer’ brings up many references to Ethereum and a few pieces on Computer World, a 1981 album by Kraftwerk, but no mention of BSV, even down to page 10 (no one goes past page 10 of a Google search – there be dragons).
Even if we add in the letters ‘BSV’ to the end we still only get a post from OKCoin about how BSV “can be” the world’s computer. But aside from that there is only one other reference in regard to a BSV DevCon event. It seems then that this idea of BSV being a world computer is only being achieved in Calvin Ayre’s mind.
If we look at chain metrics we can see that BSV’s daily transactions enjoy huge temporary spikes before collapsing down to previous lows just days later, which doesn’t suggest that the world is using it very much. Their block sizes remain some of the biggest in the space, which shows potential, but we can say for sure that that potential has not yet been reached.
Score: 0/1
Prediction: “I believe that Craig is going to win all of his lawsuits. I believe the evidence is on his side, the facts are on his side, and history’s on his side”
Result: Wright was involved in several lawsuits in 2021, but only one was concluded, which saw him owe $100 million to W&K Info Defense after being found guilty of conversion. Of course, Ayre twisted it as being a victory because he was let off the other six charges, but if you end a court case owing someone $100 million you very clearly haven’t won.
Score: 0/2
Prediction: “We’re going to be rolling out the first of the enterprise adoption of this platform, actual proof that this technology can manage big data better than anything that’s ever been created before in history.”
Result: A big claim, for sure, and one that seems to relate to Teranode, the performance upgrade that its chief designer, Steve Shadders, said earlier this year “blows away all the limits that Bitcoin would ever have”. Ayre was predicting that Teranode would roll out this year as expected but this has been put back until 2022, with no explanations as to why.
With this delay, and the fact that BSV’s node count has dropped to just over 50 from its peak of over 600 in January 2019, it’s safe to say that BSV is not managing big data better than anything that’s ever been created before. A wheelbarrow could probably do better, and at least it can’t get 51% attacked.
Score: 0/3
Ayre Swings Big and Misses Bigger
Ayre has, once again, massively overstated the ability of the BSV blockchain to handle what it was designed to handle in the first place. The lack of communication from BSV mouthpiece Coingeek over the Teranode upgrade speaks volumes, and the collapsing node count suggests that the project has bigger fish to fry if it wants to remain a going concern.
At least he didn’t mention the price…
