- Crypto has recovered splendidly in 2023, buoyed by the Bitcoin ETF narrative
- There are a number of reasons why 2024 should be a good year, but in crypto nothing is certain
- What are our thoughts for 2024?
The crypto space has seen a resurgence in 2023, with various albatrosss’ lifted from around the necks of the ecosystem as a whole this year. The question is, what lies in store in 2024?
Fundamentals
This time last year, crypto was in a grim place: all the talk of institutional adoption and Bitcoin being a way of negating inflation turned out to be nothing but wishful thinking, and with the threat of greater regulatory oversight following the headline-grabbing collapse of FTX, the space was set for another year of squeeze.
12 months later, the crypto world is smiling again: a Bitcoin ETF is imminent; Sam Bankman-Fried will soon be in prison, as might Changpeng Zhao and Alex Mashinsky; there’s a Bitcoin halving to look forward to, and more institutions are offering crypto facilities to their clients than ever before. We’ve even seen the Lighting Network roll out to various payment platforms and exchanges, increasing Bitcoin’s use as an everyday currency.
Fundamentally, crypto has never been in a stronger place, which is some going considering the doom and gloom of 2022.
Technicals
Crytpo also looks to be in a great place technically going into the new year. 2023 has seen a massive recovery, buoyed by the Bitcoin ETF narrative, leading to $872 billion of capital flooding into the market during that time. This had led to a very important level of resistance being breached and the market threatening to take out the only one left that prevents an official bull market from being declared:
The only thing to be wary of here is exhaustion after a year-long rally and the Bitcoin ETF being a sell-the-news event. It would be healthy for the crypto market to stall at this $1.62 trillion level of resistance for a few months or even correct down into the middle of the range, but it’s looking very likely that this level will fall in 2024, which may well see Bitcoin, and many other coins, heading to new all time highs.
Will 2024 be the year that Bitcoin hits $100,000? Some certainly think so.
The Only Way is Up?
On balance, it’s hard to argue against crypto having a great year. The glass ceiling of a Bitcoin ETF will be smashed, and with a halving increasing Bitcoin’s scarcity, this should further drive the market.
However, we have to be cautious about the medium-term impact of big news events like the Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin’s meteoric recovery can’t go on forever, and it could well be that 2024, at least the first half of it, will see Bitcoin correct as the ETF is approved.
Fundamentally, then, we can say that 2024 will be bullish, but Bitcoin’s price action may not reflect that, at least initially.
