Alistair Milne, a British investor and digital currency fund CIO, has given beleaguered crypto investors a shot in the arm in a series of tweets reinforcing his opinion that the best is yet to come from digital currencies. This is on top of backing Bitcoin to reach its all time high again “at minimum”. He also claims that Bitcoin will be the only sure public blockchain to be around for the next hundred years.
Still Bullish 1/6:
As early Bitcoin investors, we used to speculate about how it was an ‘asymmetric investment opportunity’ … i.e. you could lose 80% OR make several multiples on your investment
— Alistair Milne (@alistairmilne) January 19, 2019
Historical Trends Will Repeat, Says Milne
Milne, who calls himself an “altcoin skeptic” rather than a Bitcoin maximalist, says in the thread that we are still very early in Bitcoin’s life. And, as early investors, the opportunity is “asymmetric”, meaning investors can lose 99% of their holdings or gain hundreds of percent, as was seen in the latter part of 2017. Milne argues that each wave of adoption comes with a greater order of magnitude, which is certainly what we have seen in the past – 2011’s peak was $30, 2013’s was $1,155 and 2017’s was $20,000. These historical trends are what drives Milne’s optimism that 2017’s high will be eclipsed with the next market cycle, helped by the psychological knowledge of the last all time high that people will now, in theory, hold past.
If the previous formula is upheld, then we can expect the next market cycle to take Bitcoin to approximately $175,000. While this is perhaps a bit optimistic, Milne states that now everyone knows what Bitcoin is and that it is, supposedly, dead, the next time it magically comes to life again, many more people will get involved at an earlier stage in the cycle.
Milne goes on to compare Bitcoin to gold, calling it gold 2.0, and reinforces the notion that next year’s halving will reduce the production rate and should push up the price. Milne also puts a positive spin on low rates of adoption and the negative sentiment from the press and many governments, saying 30-50 million crypto owners “is not the industry’s peak” and that the next bull run will “decide which public blockchains persist for the next 100 years”, stating that Bitcoin is the only public blockchain he is sure will stand the test of time.
Too Much Good News?
While this is an optimistic outlook that will please many holders, especially those who bought at the 2017 highs, it doesn’t take into account the regulations coming in from many governments, a recession that many see as imminent in the coming months/years and other factors that could adversely affect what is a speculative asset without a proven solid use case yet. However, as Milne says, we are (hopefully) in the very early days of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, and we have no idea what news could be around the corner for Bitcoin.