Bitcoin has been on a more or less continuous downward trajectory for almost a full year, and there are indications that – rather than the trend being reversed in 2019 – it’ll actually continue. There are however a number of catalysts that could hit the thrusters and propel Bitcoin out of the doldrums and back into the stratosphere. We examine some of these potential catalysts and the impact they may have.
Catalyst: Bakkt launch
Date: January 2019 (provisional)
Reason: Bakkt is a futures exchange settled daily with real Bitcoin, as opposed to the paper contracts used with the CME and Cboe futures. ICE, who own the New York Stock Exchange, and Starbucks are involved.
Best case scenario: Institutional titans see Bakkt as the first legitimate chance to buy and hold Bitcoin. They pour billions into the space, sending the price of the entire market skywards.
Worst case scenario: Bakkt is postponed or cancelled, or it launches and no one buys in, dealing a credibility blow to Bitcoin.
Catalyst: Bitcoin ETF
Date: February 2019
Reason: The SEC are due to rule on the VanEck and SolidX ETF on or before the 27th February. This would open up Bitcoin to epic proportions of potential investment.
Best case scenario: The SEC grants the ETF. Billions of dollars flows into the space and Bitcoin gains a massive rung up on the legitimacy ladder.
Worst case scenario: The ETF is granted and Wall Street spends decades pummeling it into the ground using tricks of the trade like fractional reserve and rehypothecation, utterly undermining its aim to be an alternative to traditional banking.
Catalyst: Amazon accepts crypto
Date: 2019?
Reason: Binance CEO CZ has stated, perhaps tongue in cheek, that he is waiting for Amazon to accept cryptocurrency, as this would bring about a bull run.
Best case scenario: Bezos and the board slap a ‘Bitcoin accepted here’ sticker on Amazon.com. The price goes bananas and people start buying more stuff they don’t need from Amazon just because they can do it with crypto.
Worst case scenario: Bezos joins Buffett, Gates, Munger, and the gang by saying Bitcoin is responsible for world hunger and that it will never be accepted in his shop. The price tanks and a part of cryptocurrency’s soul dies forever.
Catalyst: Bitcoin replaces the dollar
Date: After the dollar implodes.
Reason: Inflation, national debt, and other economic crises cause the dollar to collapse. The US government announces that Bitcoin is the new world reserve currency.
Best case scenario: Bitcoin goes absolutely crazy and holders are rich beyond their wildest dreams.
Worst case scenario: There’s nowhere to spend it because all the shops have been trashed and we’re all too busy fighting each other in the streets for the last loaf of bread.
