- On January 1, 2020, Calvin Ayre made a number of predictions about BSV in 2020
- Ayre made numerous predictions about BSV price, transactions, mining share, and more
- Almost a year on, we look and see how he has fared
On January 1, 2020, BSV financier and Craig Wright lightning rod Calvin Ayre took to Coingeek to make a number of predictions about BSV’s fortunes in the year to come. With two weeks left until they expire, we have a look at five of Ayre’s BSV predictions and see just how close to the mark (or otherwise) they came.
Prediction: “By the end of the year, I think the price of BSV will be higher than any other token including BTC.”
Result: BSV currently sits 12th on Coingecko, with a price per coin of $184. This is some 146x less than first placed YFI and 125x less than Bitcoin.
Score: 0/1
Prediction: “By the end of Q1, BSV will be the undisputed highest daily transaction blockchain, massively surpassing all others.”
Result: By the end of Q1, BSV was conducting 532.115k transactions per day, behind Ethereum (731.749k) and XRP (899.087k). As of 17th December, they are still in third place.
Score: 0/2
Prediction: “…we will start to see more and more smart investors in the space realize that BSV is the real bitcoin.”
Result: Institutional investors have poured billions of dollars into BTC in 2020, with many going public about their belief in the protocol’s core philosophy. They have categorically not been buying BSV.
Score: 0/3
Prediction: “New and established bitcoin miners will continue to increase the diversity of hashing power on Bitcoin SV throughout the year.”
Result: The BSV mining pool allocation is certainly more diverse than in January, especially with Ayre’s Coingeek having abandoned the blockchain. Much of their share has been taken up by Huobi, and although the quotas are different it is still largely the same players mining BSV eleven and a half months later.
With regard to the hashing power, on January 1, 2020, the BSV hashing power was 1.259 exahashes. On December 16, 2020, it was 1.0277 exahashes, representing a decrease of 0.2313 exahashes over the year. Fail.
Score: 0/4
Prediction: “Bitcoin miners will move to the chain that has the most revenue potential for their proof of work. Bitcoin SV is the only chain in town.”
Result: BTC’s mining profitability currently stands at $0.1653 per terahash per day whereas BSV’s mining profitability is…wait for it…$0.1768 per terahash per day! A win for BSV!
Score: 1/5
BSV Fails at Almost Every Hurdle
It’s clear from Ayre’s shocking score of 1/5 that BSV has completely failed to live up to his expectations in 2020. We didn’t even mention the Teranode upgrade that is supposed to “insure (sic) Bitcoin SV will scale to massive use as global adoption increases.” Ayre said this was to roll out in 2020, but no one has even mentioned it in about six months.
Aside from BSV miners being more profitable to the tune of $4.20 per terahash per year, Ayre’s BSV predictions have been completely wrong, showing up the project for what it is – a cult run by egotistical narcissists.
