- Huobi’s co-founder has said that Bitcoin could be on the verge of a two-year bear market
- Du Jon told CBNC that if the typical four-year cycle repeats then Bitcoin is at a tipping point
- He added that a bull market would only resume in 2024 at the earliest
The co-founder of Huobi, Du Jun, has said that if history repeats then we won’t see a Bitcoin bull run until 2024 at the earliest. Jun told CNBC over the weekend that going by past market cycles Bitcoin is now tapped out for this run, with a two-year bear market possible until the next halving in 2024. Jun’s philosophy ties in with the four-year cycle theory, which is based around halving dates and uses the event itself as a catalyst for the next bull run.
“Early Stage of a Bear Market”
Jun was speaking to CNBC about where Bitcoin is in its broader cycle where he referenced the four-year cycle that ties in with the halving. Bitcoin typically behaves as it has done since the 2020 halving, enjoying a two-year bull market where it lifts the entire market. What typically follows is a two-year bear market until the next halving acts as a reversal, something that Jun said was distinctly on the cards:
“If this circle continues, we are now at the early stage of a bear market. Following this cycle, it won’t be until then end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025 that we can welcome the next bull market on Bitcoin.”
However, Jun also added that there are factors affecting markets in a way they haven’t in Bitcoin’s past:
It is really hard to predict exactly because there are so many other factors which can affect the market as well — such as geopolitical issues including war, or recent Covid, also affect the market.
While Jun’s theory makes historical sense, there are others who believe that the cycles are lengthening along with Bitcoin’s increasing market cap and that the current dip is just a bump in the road for this run.