- The SEC now has an eight-day window to potentially approve all 12 pending Bitcoin ETF applications
- Discussions between the SEC and Grayscale regarding Bitcoin Trust conversion have allegedly been ongoing
- In the event of approval, the SEC could greenlight a Bitcoin ETF ready for immediate trading, pending the completion of necessary legal steps
An eight-day approval window opens today in which the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could approve all 12 pending Bitcoin ETF applications. While the chances of this, or indeed any, Bitcoin ETF application being approved ahead of its deadline are slim, it is understood that discussions have been ongoing between the SEC and Grayscale over its Bitcoin Trust conversion. The SEC could approve any Bitcoin ETF it feels could begin trading immediately, although, naturally, there are a few legal hurdles before the product would actually launch.
Approval Window Still Cloudy
The window has come about because the SEC gave itself a deadline extension for pending ETF applications, choosing November 8 as the last day for rebuttal comments. This means that technically it could approve any or all existing Bitcoin ETF applications between today and November 17, although it would require that they begin trading the same day. It’s not known how many applicants are this far ahead in their planning.
The window was revealed by ETF expert James Seyffart, who said on X that if the SEC “wants to allow all 12 filers to launch — as we believe — this is the first available window since Grayscale’s court victory was affirmed.” Seyffart was referring to Grayscale’s legal victory over the SEC in August which rejected the agency’s reasons for disqualifying it.
Delay orders were issued by the SEC for BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity & Valkyrie at the same time. If the agency wants to allow all 12 filers to launch — as we believe — this is the first available window since Grayscale’s court victory was affirmed pic.twitter.com/v5GkbP5IUj
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 8, 2023
Seyffart added that the window for all 12 applicants ends on the 17th, but “theoretically SEC could make a decision on the first 9 on this list at any point from now until Jan 10, 2024.”
Grayscale Could be Leading the Way
Seyffart and other experts put the odds of a Bitcoin ETF approval before January 10 at 90%, and there is evidence to suggest that Grayscale could be among the front runners; Coindesk yesterday cited “a person familiar with the back-and-forth” of Grayscale’s dealings with the SEC as saying that the SEC has “opened talks” with Grapyscale representative over the conversion of its Bitcoin Trust into a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Bitcoin has continued behaving as if a spot Bitcoin ETF is imminent, breaching $36,000 last night and looking like it wants to head toward the next major resistance at $45-47,000.