- The Bitcoin bull run is over, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju
- Young Ju posted two charts which show that the two-year cycle may be coming to an end
- If this is the case, where can we expect Bitcoin to end up?
The Bitcoin bull run is over. That’s according to CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju, who believes that, following two and a bit years of upwards price action, sideways and down is the order of the day for the foreseeable future. Young Ju stated on X that “every on-chain metric signals a bear market” and has warned that the next year will not be a pleasant one for holders.
Good Times Over?
Young Ju has been positive on X for the past few months, claiming that the data still supported a continuation of the bull market that began in January 2023, but yesterday, he changed his tune:
Every on-chain metric signals a bear market. With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices.@cryptoquant_com users who subscribed to my alerts received this signal a few days ago. I assume they’ve already adjusted their positions, so I’m posting… pic.twitter.com/0EIrpTCPVi
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 17, 2025
Just three days ago, Young Ju stated that it was “too early to call it a bear market” despite demand for Bitcoin seeming “stuck,” but price action since then seems to have changed his mind. The CryptoQuant founder posted two charts, both of which are at points where, in three of the past four cycles, price has experienced a fall:
Bitcoin’s rise to $109,500, which it hit at the start of the year, would also seem to be a natural stopping point, using the Fibonacci Extension tool, ignoring the artificial low created by the March 2020 crash:
If we look at the high period in more detail, we can see how accurate this forecast was:
The negative price action is all the more surprising given the plethora of good news that has been supplementing the market since its most recent all-time high, but there may have been a case of ‘selling the news’ given the promises made by Donald Trump on the campaign trail.
How Low Can You Go?
If Bitcoin has topped out and entered a bear market, where can we expect it to bottom out? Previous Bitcoin bear markets have typically seen a 75-85% decline from the all-time highs:
- 2011-2012: ~93%
- 2013-2015: ~86%
- 2017-2018: ~84%
- 2021-2022: ~77%
This shows that drawdowns are decreasing in severity, suggesting three possible regions for Bitcoin to bottom out:
Mild Bear Market (60-70% drop): $30,000-$40,000
Moderate Bear Market (75-80% drop): $20,000-$25,000
Severe Bear Market (85%+ drop): $12,000-$17,000
The most probable bear market bottom based on historical drawdowns and moving averages is between $20,000-$25,000, however, increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin may bring it closer to the $30,000 region. Another look at the chart suggests a handy point of strong support and resistance:
It is entirely feasible that if Bitcoin is on a downward journey, it bottoms around this area, with the following bull run taking us towards the $200,000 region.
For now, we will have to wait and see how the price action unfolds. Should Bitcoin fall below $70,000 and not break back above it, we can confidently say that the bull run is over and the bear market has begun.
