Bitcoin spent the weekend in full reverse thrust, falling from $11,950 to $10,000 over Saturday and Sunday, before bouncing slightly on Monday but barely enough to give bulls much hope. The downwards move signaled to many that the upward parabola that began when BTC began rising in April has now been broken, and that a correction and period of recovery will now ensue.
If price stops accelerating growth, the parabola will break. If the parabola is intact, we should be heading towards $20,000 in half months time
Unfortunately, the parabola will likely break today or tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/gEVEKTY4Jw
— ๑ THE CRYPTO PANDA ๑ (@PandaofBinance) 13 July 2019
With the parabola now broken BTC needs to find a low and then spend some time resetting before a probable push to all-time highs in advance of the halving in May 2020. As usual there is no clear point at which BTC will bottom out. Should it struggle at its current level and fall through the $9,720 support found on July 2, then $9,200 is the next likely place for it to revisit. However, a more tempting area is the $8,500 range which is the last remaining CME gap and also represents a 35% retracement from the most recent top, which is typical of a Bitcoin bull run. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index swung massively from 61 to 16 in 24-hours, which suggests we might be due for a leg up first.
Wen Alt Season?
Some alts saw a temporary bounce starting Friday with Binance IEO coins like of ERD and ONE performing well, but this bounce only lasted until Sunday when the latest BTC drop dragged them all back down again. This illustrates the danger of buying alts right now, as any bounce is likely to be savagely beaten back, meaning that stop losses are essential if you want to play that alt game. A much-shared chart over the weekend provided a dose of positive thinking for alt bagholders however, highlighting the history of the alt coin market cap and showing that, historically speaking at least, we are due an alt season:
— Crypto Hedge (@TheCryptoHedge) 13 July 2019
This two-year consolidation period should, in theory, be coming to an end in the coming weeks, assuming that Bitcoin has a period of relative stability. And when does Bitcoin ever do what we want it to do?