Bitcoin predictions don’t tend to look good for those brave enough to make them. The cryptocurrency has a way of doing the exact opposite to what the majority of people expect, and ends up making fools of otherwise intelligent men and women. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, for example, has received a great deal of grief for his constantly bullish Bitcoin forecasts, even in the face of a savagely falling market, to the point where he claims he has now given up offering short-term predictions.
The Results Are In…
As crypto analyst Larry Cermak pointed out this week, a great many public figures threw their hat into the Bitcoin price ring in 2018, and with the results in, very few have come out with their integrity improved. Before we get to the autopsy, let’s remind ourselves that the price of Bitcoin at 23:59:59 on December 31, 2018 was, according to CoinMarketCap, $3,742.56. Now let’s see how the ‘experts’ fared in their 2018 Bitcoin predictions:
One thing to notice about these predictions, as well as how laughable they now seem, is when they were made. The bulk were made when Bitcoin was in the throes of the 2017/18 bull run and enthusiasm was clearly running wild. At the time, even the $100,000 claims didn’t seem fantastical. Very few could see any downside, but some lesser-known voices preached caution, especially when the futures markets were opened:
2 Possible Outcomes 1) CME Tames BTC, Slow Grinding to Ground over the years (like Gold) OR 2) Wild BTC Bull burns down CME & Economy prompting Govt Extreme Action. Banksters have a plan to steal your BTC. Biggest Robbery & Wealth Transfer Ever. Welcome to Futures Market. pic.twitter.com/PdWPa2iUad
— Bitcoin, Gold, Silver & Geopolitics (@Super_Crypto) December 2, 2017
A New Year, a New Set of Predictions
So what of 2019? Some of the predictions are already in, and here is how they look:
Calvin Ayre Ayre Group $0
Tom Lee Fundstrat $36,000
Mike Novogratz Galaxy Digital $20,000
Sonny Singh BitPay $20,000
As per usual we have a mixed bag, with Bitcoin Cash SV proponent Calvin Ayre reiterating that Bitcoin has “no utility” and therefore 2019 will see it going to zero, While some see a return to all-time highs, boosted by ETFs and institutional adoption, as well as the Lightning Network improving scaling.
No doubt more predictions will be forthcoming as the pattern of 2019 develops, and the ones already made might even find themselves being tweaked to avoid embarrassment. After all, Bitcoin is no respecter of reputation.
