- $46,00 Bitcoin might feel like wishful thinking at the moment, but it’s far from that
- The 2019 bear market rally saw Bitcoin jump 300% until it hit key resistance
- A move to the same resistance this time round is only a 2x
At a time when many in the crypto space are still either sidelined since the move from $15,500 or have their fingers hovering over the ‘sell’ button in the belief that the market could reverse at any time, the suggestion that Bitcoin could be on course for $46,000 may seem like madness. However, Bitcoin seems to be mirroring the prior bear market, and if this is the case then $46,000 is a perfectly reasonable topping point.
Lessons From 2019
Those who were around for the 2018/19 bear market will remember how Bitcoin rallied from its almost 50% haircut in November 2018 to enjoy a bear market rally that took it all the way to $14,000 from $3,200:
This bounce equated to a 300% rebound, stopping at the point where the lower high from the 2017 peak confirmed that a downtrend was playing out. As we can see from the most recent bull run, this point is at $46,000:
This may seem a fanciful target, but the fact is that this represents only a doubling in price from the current point compared to the 3x that Bitcoin pulled off in 2019. When viewed through this prism such a move is entirely feasible, and indeed the timings seem to be matching up, too – the 2018 crash occurred 11.5 months after the prior peak, with Bitcoin’s FTX-induced crash last year happening almost a year to the day since the 2020 peak.
If this scenario were to play out then, we would expect the current bear market rally to continue until around May before a slow grind back down to the mid-20,000s as accumulation for the next bull run begins.