Bitcoin continues to range around the $5,100 – $5,200 area as bulls and bears circle each other to see who will come out on top in this particular battle. 24hr volume has flatlined and even tailed off a little in recent days, down some 40% from this time last week. This is perhaps not surprising given the events of last week that brought record volume into the market, but is nevertheless a sign that the dust has well and truly settled from Bitcoin’s $1,000 move last week and the next action could have a strong bearing on where the market stands.
The Bearish Argument
The bears suggest that BTC is exhausted and is ripe for a pullback to the mid-high $4000s before eyeing a return upwards. A common line of argument is that because we didn’t close the week above $5,300 we haven’t broken the weekly resistance, and that every day we spend in the current range is just delaying the inevitable drop. They also argue that because the jump to the $5000s was unnatural, the sentiment is not there to retain this range. How long Bitcoin needs to stay in this range until this opinion is reversed remains to be seen.
Closed Longs from 4800. Not looking great.
Looking to rebuy 4800-4400.
— Flood [BitMEX] (@ThinkingUSD) April 9, 2019
Sold some spot $BTC here. Not liking this too much.
If it breaks upwards, great, i’m still well exposed.
If it breaks down, good to have taken some profit here.
Looking forward to see how price reacts to 4.4-4.5k if we get there. pic.twitter.com/W6X3UkJU0g
— GnusThoughtsOnCrypto (@gnusamstoc) April 9, 2019
The Bullish Argument
On the other end of the seesaw are the bulls, who see the fact that Bitcoin has held the $5,000+ range as a very positive sign, at least in the short term, and back up their argument with some strong fundamentals – Monday saw a dramatic 26% drop in shorts on BitMEX, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said that his exchange is seeing the biggest deposits and order numbers in over a year, and Greyscale investment fund recently increased their BTC holding to $1.2 billion. This has been reinforced by bulls on social media, who see $6,000 as the more likely next stopping off point.
— Lil Moon X (@MoonOverlord) April 9, 2019
— BEAMER฿TC (@beamerbtc) April 10, 2019
Alts Remain in Limbo
With Bitcoin still driving the market it’s a risky time to be in alts, who traditionally don’t fare well when it makes a big move either way. Catalysts such as product launches don’t seem to be having the anticipated effect at the moment either – BTT was supposed to “melt faces” when BitTorrent launched recently but didn’t. The same of which can be said for TRX, which many had anticipated would go on a huge run once USDT moved to Tron’s platform from Omni earlier this week. This resulted in a single-digit rise. When catalysts can no longer be trusted and Bitcoin is in this mood, being in alts can be a very dangerous game. Although, as we’ve seen, sentiments, and prices, can flip in no time.
Fucking hilarious to see Crypto Twitter today. Biggest bulls becoming bearish when $BTC didn’t even do anything.
— Bitcoin Macro (@BTC_Macro) April 10, 2019