- Bitcoin dropped more than $2,200 overnight after failing to break all time highs
- Bitcoin stopped just $176 short of its record before falling to $17,255
- The $16,000s are possible if Bitcoin cannot reclaim a key range
Bitcoin’s attempts to topple its all time high appear to have been strangled just $176 from the peak. After hitting $19,490, Bitcoin couldn’t sustain its upward momentum and collapsed to $17,255 around 14 hours later. Is this the end of the bull run, or just another bump in the road to all time highs?
Bitcoin’s Double Top Act
Bitcoin looked to be finally about to break its price record yesterday when it ran from $18,640 up to $19,490 but topped out just $176 short, a rejection that acted as a double top and was followed by the textbook collapse. In this case that took the form of a $2,235 crash, wicking out at $17,255:
This drop took us right through the key range we outlined yesterday as being crucial for Bitcoin to hold if it wanted to keep this rally intact. This remains the case, and in an ideal scenario we would see Bitcoin bounce and reclaim this range, which would suggest that there is the desire to continue upwards from here:
If Bitcoin rejects at this range then we have to look at lower levels to see where the next bounce might be. Having already taken out $17,600 and then bounced at $17,255 in this move down we are looking at the $16,575-$16,800 for the next support cluster:
Is The Bull Run Over?
The inability to cross all time highs has led to some questioning whether this represents the end of the Bitcoin bull run. In the short term the answer is probably yes, given that Bitcoin has been on an unsustainable run since late September, giving us green week after green week. A correction was inevitable, and the more extended the run the more severe the correction.
If this proves to be the point at which Bitcoin has finally had enough, we could well see the 20-30% correction typical in such bull runs, which would delay another assault on all time highs until next year.
On the plus side, this should see the money made in the run pile into alts, giving us an alt season worthy of the name. However, this can only happen once Bitcoin has settled down, and it may be some days or even weeks until this happens – especially if this turns out to be just a pit stop on the way to further highs.
