Willy Woo predicts that the bottom isn’t in for Bitcoin.
‘Dump Then Moon’
The popular Bitcoin Twitter personality and trader told his followers as much on March 18th:
Dump then moon. We are undergoing flight to safety right now, BTC is looking for its bottom. But know that once the bottom is in there are strong bullish pressures ahead. It's this economic environment in the years ahead that Bitcoin was built for. https://t.co/ILn3aXTJXG
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) March 18, 2020
Woo reported that he was surprised at the confidence in most traders. Bitcoin, he says, will “dump then moon.” This means it will go lower before it spikes. Woo referenced a tweet from August of 2018, when he had a similar prediction.
Interesting to see most think BTC will moon. I think BTC will flash dump, then moon afterwards, just like with Gold in WFC 2008. Flight to safety: everything else sells off to USD, then used to unwind leveraged positions, then afterwards havens like Gold and BTC have a bull run. https://t.co/hSscpQXG6n
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) August 1, 2018
That tweet was in response to an earlier poll that Woo had run, the results of which showed almost 60% believing a moon was imminent. On the day of the response to the poll, Bitcoin was trading over $8,000. Just the other week, Bitcoin was trading past $10,000. Here’s a full analysis from that day:
Bitcoin has not technically “mooned” since early 2018, when it was trading over $20,000. To “moon” would require the cryptocurrency to go past its previous all-time-high significantly.
The important questions raised by Woo’s tweeting are: has Bitcoin reached its bottom and will we ever see a moon again? To find the answer, history won’t be very helpful, as we are currently in a time not like any other in the history of Bitcoin.
The Corona Vector
Whatever we like to say on social media, the coronavirus is taking its toll. The same class of people who hoard Bitcoin for philosophical reasons will be taking the virus quite seriously, and periodic dumps to fund prepping and other corona-related activities can be expected.
Coronavirus seems to be affecting Bitcoin markets as negatively as it is affecting the stock market. This is either an indication of the severity of the virus, or it’s a sign that old money has finally got its foot in the door when it comes to Bitcoin. If that’s the case, watching the stock market is a good way to determine how much farther Bitcoin has to go. On the morning this article was written, the majority of the listed companies took yet another beating, all except a biotech company with rumors of a vaccine.
The hardline philosophical beliefs of many Bitcoin investors mean that there is a limit to how low we can go. Even if every miner is willing to sell at whatever price the market offers, for whatever reason, there’s a theoretical limit on how much the market can sell itself down.
We just don’t know what that limit is.
Previous studies have found that upwards of 40% of all BTC has sat idle for years. It would be a complicated formula to determine how much of an anchoring effect this hoarding lends to Bitcoin, but it’s safe to say there’s a point at which buyers will see a reverse in the trend, and BTC will become more expensive.
That may seem like an obvious statement, but it’s a comforting reminder to those new in Bitcoin investment. The recent 50% selloff was nothing new for veteran traders, and plenty are putting in their long calls at this point.
But let’s couch that in some language we can understand: Bitcoin is as likely to see $1,000 in the next 30 days as it is to retouch $10,000. That’s just the nature of the crypto market, like it or not.
