Gartner, one of the world’s leading research and advisory companies, has predicted that 90% of existing enterprise blockchains will need replacing by 2021. Reflecting the speed with which the technology is moving and will continue to move, Gartner predicts that enterprise implementations will have 18 months to either upgrade or be replaced completely in order to “remain competitive, secure, and avoid obsolescence.”
Huge Value Add to Business
The Gartner report, entitled ‘How to Position Blockchain Platforms to Increase Adoption’, paints a picture of rapid uptake and evolution of the space, stating that by 2025 the value to business that blockchain has added will grow to just over $176 billion, then surge to exceed $3.1 trillion by 2030. This is in stark contrast to Bank of America CTO Cathy Bessant, who said in March that blockchain technology could be worthless in a few years time. Adrian Lee, senior research director at Gartner, states in the report:
Blockchain platforms are emerging platforms and, at this point, nearly indistinguishable in some cases from core blockchain technology. Many CIOs overestimate the capabilities and short-term benefits of blockchain as a technology to help them achieve their business goals, thus creating unrealistic expectations when assessing offerings from blockchain platform vendors and service providers.
Lee also adds that “product managers should prepare for rapid evolution, early obsolescence, a shifting competitive landscape, future consolidation of offerings and the potential failure of early stage technologies/functionality in the blockchain platform market,” which begs the question of who these corporations will be that will adopt these untried and frequently outdated technologies.
One Blockchain to Rule Them All?
The Gartner report also states that a “multiplatform world” will emerge within the next five years, rather than one blockchain dominating the landscape. This seems viable as many will come and go in that time, and only the most flexible and adaptable will survive, especially as we will likely see another crypto boom and bust cycle in that time, which would wipe out many projects. There is also the fact that blockchain technology will impact so many areas of commerce that one single project couldn’t hope to dominate all of them, although Microsoft Blockchain and IBM Blockchain are giving it a good go.