- Fundstrat predicts that Bitcoin’s price could reach $180,000 due to the combination of a Bitcoin ETF launch and the 2024 halving
- The firm estimates the implied equilibrium price to be between $140,000 and $180,000
- Fundstrat anticipates Bitcoin ETFs to dominate the ETF market in the future
Investment research firm Fundstrat believes that the combination of a Bitcoin ETF and the 2024 halving will see its price soar to $180,000, possibly before the halving even takes place. In a recent note, the firm highlighted that Bitcoin’s current daily demand of approximately $25 million matches its daily mining rewards but added that the introduction of a Bitcoin ETF could lead to an additional $100 million in daily demand, significantly impacting the supply-demand equilibrium. This, combined with the halving-induced reduction in supply, would further heighten demand, and the price.
Demand Will Outweigh Supply 4-5x
The bold prediction was made by Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, Sean Farrell, who explained that the multiplier effect on the Bitcoin network could result in a $4 to $5 increase in market cap for every $1 of demand. With the April 2024 halving event expected to cut daily mining rewards to $12 million, the increased demand from the ETF launch would push the price of Bitcoin higher than ever.
Fundstrat believes that the implied equilibrium price, where daily supply equals daily demand, would need to be between $140,000 and $180,000, while Farrell also believes that the probability of a spot Bitcoin ETF gaining approval in the near term is estimated to be around 75%. This thought is echoed by other analysts.
Fundstrat predicts that a Bitcoin ETF approval, particularly one from BlackRock, could lead to one of the largest ETF launches in history. The Invesco QQQ ETF, which holds the current record, attracted $36 billion in inflows during its first year after launch.
Bitcoin ETFs Will Rule
Looking to the future, Fundstrat anticipates that Bitcoin ETFs could eventually outshine the precious metals ETF market, which currently holds nearly $230 billion in assets. The firm envisions the Bitcoin ETF category potentially exceeding $300 billion, contributing to a significant increase in demand for Bitcoin and potentially driving its price past the $100,000 mark.
Farrell and Fundstrat are not alone in their bullish predictions. Standard Chartered has also expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s price trajectory, predicting that the cryptocurrency could surpass $120,000 in the coming year due to positive feedback loops, although a regulatory crackdown in the US could see access for retail users diminish.
