- Bitcoin’s halving halfway curse has struck again
- The leading cryptocurrency has dropped 28% since the halving halfway point, mirroring history
- What can we expect if this thesis continues to play out?
The halving halfway curse seems to have struck Bitcoin again, with price declining 28% in the month after the marker passed last month, keeping up with past tradition. Bitcoin has retraced 33%-67% in the weeks and months following the halfway point of the halving ever since the first one in 2012, and history looks to be repeating. If this continues we have a very clear idea of what to expect next, with a 2023-24 rally looking the more likely option following a capitulation event.
Bitcoin Halving Halfway Drop Playing Out
Bitcoin’s halfway halving curse dates back to the very first such event in July 2014, the halfway point between the first halving in 2012 and the second in 2016. A 67% drop, stagnation, and two capitulations followed in the next year before the next bull market began in August 2015.
The next such event was in May 2018 just as Bitcoin’s bear market was taking hold. This saw a 65% collapse before the March 2020 capitulation acted as the catalyst for the 2020/21 bull run.
Theory Suggests Stagnation and Capitulation in 2022
Bitcoin passed the halving halfway point a month ago, at which point the price was $46,100. In the weeks that have followed Bitcoin has reverted to type, dropping 28% so far with more potentially on the horizon. If history plays out then we’ll see more stagnation throughout 2022 with the potential for a capitulation wick soaking up liquidity far below where we are now, leading into a two-year rally in 2023-24.
With Bitcoin now echoing movements in the stock markets however, many of which have been in a 10-20 year bull market but are now showing signs of weakness, it may no longer act independently, putting such a thesis in doubt for the first time. Its ability to act independently may be crucial to a potential 2023-24 bull market to take place.