- Bitcoin traditionally performs badly in September
- The entire crypto market has enjoyed a fruitful August, suggesting a correction is coming
- How is Bitcoin looking as we enter the second worst month on average?
The cryptocurrency space has enjoyed a great August, with many alts gaining 100% valuations as Bitcoin bounced from $38,000 to $48,000. However, everything that goes up must come down, and Bitcoin’s traditional performance in September is already doing the rounds of crypto Twitter, with many predicting a correction before a larger move upward into the winter. But is this pessimism justified? We take a look at the September curse.
Bitcoin Folklore Says September is a Bad Month
According to Bitcoin folklore there are two months in which Bitcoin traditionally performs the worst – March and September. Several charts have been doing the rounds in recent weeks which all highlight the same message:
#Bitcoin doesn’t like September at all.
Are we going to repeat and have a corrective month across markets, before the continuation of bull cycle? pic.twitter.com/bNQDoaqp1p
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 30, 2021
#Bitcoin historical returns by calendar month (since 2012)
September bearish, but November averages a +61% return👀 pic.twitter.com/S6GSArBFY5
— tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) August 27, 2021
The only thing that seems different is where the bitcoin price is currently at but the historical performance that september brings is something to take note of.
Also take note of the current avax trend and identify the phase it is in.
Chart below by @cryptounfolded pic.twitter.com/gttXvmqLtG
— Waro (@warobusiness) August 25, 2021
As we can see, over time September has most definitely been one of the worst, if not the worst, month for Bitcoin returns, with an average return second only to March. The question is of course, how are things shaping up this time round?
One look at the Bitcoin chart suggests that the portents could indeed be right. Bitcoin has been on a tear since the end of July, racing from $29,000 to $51,000, where it was finally beaten back last week. Since then we have seen a period of selling which very strongly indicates that a necessary reversal is on the cards and could be starting right now.
A Chance to Load Up
If such a reversal does indeed start to occur, the average September pullback is 7.8%, which would take us down to $44,000, which happens to be a natural point of support. And it’s not just Bitcoin that is in need of a reset – alts have been going great guns in the past 5-6 weeks and are in need of correction too. If Bitcoin corrects around 8% then we can expect a much heavier correction on alts, even as much as 20% in some cases, allowing plenty of opportunity to stock up on your favorite coins for the next phase of the bull market.
