Was Bitcoin’s Crash Just a Pre-halving Dump?

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Many theories about Bitcoin’s recent crash have been put forward, but one that has just been picking up momentum recently is that of a pre-halving dump. The same phenomenon was seen in both 2016 and 2012, and in both cases it led to a significant positive move upwards in the markets once the halving had taken place. Is it possible that this was the same situation again with this year’s halving, just exacerbated by other factors?

Previous Halvings Support Theory

Talk about the halving and its potential impact began in 2018 when cryptocurrency was in the throes of a bear market as people tried to forecast when Bitcoin might rise once more from the ashes. The general consensus was that the price would likely run up prior to the event itself, crash around the time of the event, recover again, and set in motion a bull run some months down the road.

The reason for this was based on the two previous halvings, in 2012 and 2016:

Screenshot 2020-03-18 at 07.04.58

As we can see in both instances, the price rallied into the halving then dumped before the actual event. The 2016 dump occurred around three weeks prior to July 9 date, whereas 2012 experienced two dumps – one some 12 weeks before the halving and another around five weeks before.

Both these dumps occurred after big run ups, just as Bitcoin experienced in January and February, suggesting that the pattern could be replaying again, a sentiment that others seem to agree with:

Narrative is Well Known

If it were a pre-halving dump, it has come far earlier than any previous ones – more than two months out from the event. However, this isn’t too unthinkable given that prior dumps have taken place three weeks and five weeks respectively – eight weeks is not inconceivable, especially as the halving narrative is well known by now and therefore is anticipated much more in advance than previous ones.

Impossible to Tell

In truth however, it is impossible to know how much of an impact the imminent halving had when other events, such as the impact of the coronavirus, the BitMEX saga, and suspicions of market manipulation, were also at play at the same time.

Whether the halving narrative played a part in the recent crash or not, what we can do is count it as a pre-halving dump, meaning that we can look forward to the next bit – the post halving bull run!